#NeverNewt

On May 20, 2016, when asked the question about Newt Gingrich being his Vice Presidential choice on “Fox and Friends,” Donald Trump stated, “Sure, why not?  He He is a good guy.  You might as well.”

On May 21, Paul Bedard in his article from the Washington Examiner states that there is growing support for Newt Gingrich as Trump’s Vice President.   In his article, Bedard states how Gingrich was the speaker who  was “able to cut deals with then President Bill Clinton on Republican issues like welfare reform and balancing the budget.”  He quotes Reagan biographer Craig Shirley, “Newt solves a lot of problems for Trump. He’s an outsider who nonetheless talks to the insiders. He will help unify the party and the convention, he’s a great debater, he’s a complete rebuke of the Romney remnants and the busted Bush brigades and is the GOP number one idea man.”  Shirley also states, “He’s been vetted and will keep the Clintons up pacing the floor all night. Gingrich beat the Clintons time and again. He’s also an original Reaganite and that means everything to a party created by Ronald Reagan.”

All of this sounds good, but has he been properly vetted?  During Gingrich’s  2012 Presidential run,  Realgchange.org  cited the following:

  • “We had oral sex. He prefers that modus operandi because then he can say, ‘I never slept with her.'” – Anne Manning (who was also married at the time.)
  • “We would have won in 1974 if we could have kept him out of the office, screwing her [a young volunteer] on the desk.” – Dot Crews, his campaign scheduler at the time
  • [In the book] “Men Who Hate Women and the Women Who Love Them”, [I] “found frightening pieces that related to my own life.” – Newt.
  • “I think you can write a psychological profile of me that says I found a way to immerse my insecurities in a cause large enough to justify whatever I wanted it to.” – Newt, speaking to Gail Sheehy.
  • “She isn’t young enough or pretty enough to be the President’s wife. And besides, she has cancer.” – Newt, on his first wife (Jackie, his high school teacher)
  • “I don’t want him to be president and I don’t think he should be.” – Newt’s second wife Marianne.
  • “She [Callista] is the single most self-centered person I’ve run into in politics—it’s all about her. They do these movies together, and she does a word count: she has to have the same number of words on camera as he does or they have to reshoot. …And Callista did not want him to run for President. That’s why he had to buy her so much damn jewelry.” – an unnamed “former strategist.” Will Rogers, Newt’s ex-Iowa strategist has denied it was him.
  • “He treats me really nicely, buys me all these ices. Dolce & Gabbana, Fendi and that Donna, Karan, he be sharin’ All that money got me wearin'” — Callista? No wait, that’s Fergie, “My Humps”
  • “[I was] very lonely, very driven, and pretty weird as a kid.” — Newt
  • “It doesn’t matter what I do. People need to hear what I have to say. There’s no one else who can say what I can say. It doesn’t matter what I live.” – Newt, as he dumped his second wife for a younger, healthier woman
  • “Fannie Mae is an excellent example of a former government institution fulfilling its mandate while functioning in the market economy.” — Newt, 1995

This poses too much of a problem for Donald Trump.  Hillary Clinton tried to pin her “War on Women” attack on Trump by calling him a “misogynist,” and Trump turned it deftly back on her by calling Bill Clinton a “rapist” and Hillary Clinton an “enabler.”  If he selected Newt Gingrich, Hillary Clinton can then point to Newt Gingrich and say that Donald must think that what Newt did was all right if he’s selecting him.  On top of that, her campaign would point out that Trump and Gingrich have six marriages between them, and that Gingrich filed for divorce while his first wife, Jacki, was in the hospital.   People can literally line up Bill’s transgressions and line them up with Newt’s and go toe-to-toe: “Both think that oral sex is not cheating.”  “What’s worse, Bill inserting cigars, or Newt having sex with interns laying on a his desk?”

At this particular point, Donald Trump needs to pass.

 

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Building Walls

Trump’s centerpiece for his initial campaign was about building walls to prevent illegal aliens from entering our country.  It was a bold, audacious statement the ripped off the veil of gentility, ripped open scabs and poured alcohol all over it.  After he made his statement, people knew that this would be no ordinary campaign.

Opponents of Trump shrieked and guffawed, “He can’t build that wall and make Mexico pay.”  Meanwhile, though, Trump’s building different walls.

Trump has erected a wall between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton and between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders supporters.  In her interview with Donald Trump, Nicole Wallace of MSNBC tried to trap him by asking him if he would ever consider Bernie Sanders as a running mate.   This was meant to drive a wedge between  Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders supporters.    Trump answered her masterfully by praising Bernie on the one thing that they agreed on “that the U.S. is being taken advantage of horribly on trade deals.”  He also stated, “If Bernie loses –which he will because the primary is rigged– If Bernie loses to Hillary he should run as an independent. Bernie should definitely run as an independent,” Trump said.  “[If he doesn’t], big percentages of the Bernie people are going to vote for Trump.”  Trump turned the tables on her and framed it as an either/or question for Bernie supporters.  Hillary Clinton’s name never enters the equation.  In this way, he emphases the wall between Bernie and Hillary with his “primary is rigged” statement.  He erects a wall between Hillary Clinton and Bernie supporters by stating they either support Bernie as an independent or they should vote for him.

Trump has erected a wall between Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton.  She would walk out with him, arm in arm–returning him as the conquering hero, when times were good, only it is her time now.  She sought to portray Trump as the poster child for being the misogynist and an instigator of this “War on Women.”  Instead, Trump hammered her by stating that her husband was fair game.  Now, he is outright calling him a “rapist,” and Hillary’s only response is to say that she will not respond.   Meanwhile, Bill Clinton is left on the sidelines saying, “I sometimes feel that I’m totally useless in this election season because I’m a happy grandfather.  On the sidelines, he’s a “happy grandfather.”  If he opens his mouth, he’s accused of being a “serial rapist.”

Trump will erect a wall between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.  For Obama, it is all about legacy, which is why he is getting in as many social changes as possible.  Hillary Clinton is in the position of not denigrating what Obama has done–in fact, she has to act as if times are good–but she also has to separate herself from him.  Trump will ask the same question, though slightly different, than Ronald Reagan did, “Are you better off that you were eight years ago?”  To African-Americans, he’ll ask, “Are you better off than you were 25 years ago when Bill was President up to the time that Hillary was Secretary of State?”

If Hillary Clinton loses, Donald Trump will trash Obama’s legacy.  At some point for Obama, it will be about self-preservation and whether or not Loretta  Lynch is informed to prosecute Hillary Clinton, and the Democrats try to slip Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren through the back door.  Trump will be quick to pounce on that, though, pointing out that the system is rigged.  Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren did not run in one state, did not win one delegate, and the Democratic Party is taking away the nomination from Bernie Sanders and disenfranchising millions of voters.  For her part, Hillary Clinton will walk the tightrope between lurching left to appease Bernie Sanders supporters while tacking to the middle for mainstream America.  She will have to both embrace and push away Obama’s presidency.  She has to deal with Bill Clinton’s past, and her part in it, while trying to push forward toward a future in which she is President.  And she has not even gotten to the part where she tangles with Donald Trump.

The Trump Equation

Firmly entrenched political pundits scratch their heads and say, “We can’t figure out Donald Trump,” followed by their only method of attack, “He’s not a true Conservative.”

If you are a business person or anyone who has struggled to balance a check book, Trump’s actions and messages are an easy equation:

Revenue – Expenses = Profits

Trump wants to raise revenue by:

  • Bringing jobs back from overseas
  • Cutting regulations to jump start or encourage small businesses.
  • Make foreign countries pay their fair share.
  • Cut taxes.  People don’t hold onto their money anymore.  They either pay long overdue bills, buy something that they have always longed for, or in the case of business, expanding their capabilities to generate more revenue.

Trump wants to lower expenses by:

  • Building a wall to prevent illegal aliens from coming here and adding to our expense.  Pundits claim that these are hard working people, but a business person points out that the revenue generated by them doesn’t equal the expenses of having them here.
  • Getting rid of waste and management.  By cutting regulations, Trump will obliterate those agencies created to oversee those regulations. Pundits claim that Trump needs to be specific, but he is not going to create controversy and wedge issues over what he will cut.  In California, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger tried to cut state spending, and he became subjected to teachers, fire fighters, nurses and police ads saying that he’s against education, against safety, against health care, and against crime.  He ended up losing all those battles, throwing up his arms, and coasting through the rest of his term.
  • Get rid of unfair deals that do not generate a profit, but instead a loss.
  • Making foreign countries pay their fair share for our military.  Trump talks about building up our military, but from a business point of view the military is an expense that generates no revenue.  That is why we hear Trump talking about taking the oil.  It is an offset.  It is also why he talks about off-loading some of our military obligations to Japan, Saudi Arabia and South Korea.  It is why he wants to build up our military to threaten into negotiations, which is less costly than all-out war.

Trump wants to create profit to help lower our $19+ trillion deficit.  He is running for President because of fiscal reasons, not social ones.  He is a Fiscal Conservative who plays a Social Progressive to blunt Hillary Clinton’s talking points and wedge issues.  She can’t hurl stones if Trump says, “Let the states decide.”  Trump reveals his actual Social Conservative side with his list of 10 Conservative Supreme Court nominees, who are the ultimate arbitrators over social issues.  Take Planned Parenthood as an example.  Democrats talk about how Planned Parenthood is vital to provide women with choice.  Trump will not agree or disagree with it from a social perspective.  At some point, he will say, “We can’t afford it, we’re $19+ trillion in debt.  It’s a worthy cause, but we just can’t afford it anymore.”

If Donald Trump is a  Fiscal Conservative, then Barack Obama is the flip side of him, all about social issues and correcting  perceived social inequalities.  Trump wants to preserve our financial position in the world.  If our country goes bankrupt, then he goes bankrupt, too, and everything that he has built for his children and his grandchildren goes poof up in the air.  Meanwhile, Barack Obama would love to see a financial catastrophe because it would bring about great social change, and it would give he and his minions the change to re-make the world in their own image.

 

Donald Trump, Cash Cow

There was all this hullabaloo about Donald Trump hammer smashing the Republican Party.  Stay at home voters sit with sour pickle faces unwilling to vote for such a louse.  Republicans, standing on principle, fold their arms, shake their heads, maintaining granite-like jaws.  It was all a ruse, though, as Donald Trump is a cash cow.  Sure, he is retracting a bit on self-funding.  If he made it this far, he knew that he would be getting federal money to run.

Pundits, with mud pies in hand, waiting for lift-off,  chortle that  Donald Trump dives off the flip flop board gain, and he now pilfers money from the very people who drop other politicians in their pockets.  Trump will not mention self-funding anymore.  In fact, if Hillary Clinton says anything, he clubs her on the noggin about how she excoriates Wall Street while collecting millions of dollars jumping through hoops for them.

Donald Trump is doing a fundraiser for Chris Christie, which may be a trial run for public perception of them as running mates.  Other politicians watch from afar, eyes darting back and forth at the enormous crowds and a cavalcade of money dropping from buckets in the sky across Chris Christie’s stout shoulders.  In that moment, those politicians see the light and after much proclaimed soul searching, they begrudgingly support Donald Trump.  If you are running for an office in a swing state, you will find yourself standing in front of overflowing crowds chanting your name, as Trump bellows, “I need this person on my team.  It’s a rigged system.  Together, we’ll clean up this mess in Congress and ‘Make America Great Again’.”

Soon, flurries of Republican politicians discover the light, pointing out that by associating with him, they are in eminent danger, but can they please find time to raise funds together?   They must stand together against the evil Hillary Clinton, right?   Trump will whisk his new friends off to Fox News and make their cases for them.  The more that Trump is seen with people, and the more generous he is with his time, the stronger candidate he will appear to be.

Pundits like to paint Trump as a “populist.”  If that is the case, the more people that Trump is with, the more he appears to be a man of the people.   Donald Trump generates excitement, he can control the media and he is a cash cow.  All those things were destined to bring the Republican Party to his side, no matter how much they acted like Paul Ryan scratching his head and dragging his heels.

Bill feels helpless?

In a recent Washington Examiner article, Bill Clinton claims, “I sometimes feel that I’m totally useless in this election season because I’m a happy grandfather. I’m not mad enough at anybody,” Clinton said.   Somehow, the irony is lost on him that while he may not be mad enough at anybody, there are certainly many of his victims who are mad at  him because of his behavior towards him.  He should think about Juanita Broaddrick  who “has spent over three decades living with the pain, humiliation and anxiety caused first by Bill Clinton’s sexual assault and then by Bill and Hillary and their smear team attempting to intimidate and discredit her.”  Meanwhile, in response to Trump’s allegation of her husband being a rapist, Ms.  Clinton says, “He can say whatever he wants to say” about her husband.

In the article, Mr. Clinton states, “his congenial tone was not in demand this election season and could become a detriment to Hillary Clinton as the 2016 race progresses.”  Congenial tone?  Ask Juanita Broaddrick about that.  According to her, after Bill Clinton raped her, bit her lip, and was done with her, he allegedly said, “‘You better put some ice on that.”  Not quite sure how congenial that was.

In the Washington Examiner article, Bill Clinton also stated,   “And because the life I spend now is driven by the real world and facts. I mean, we live in kind of a fact-free political universe, you know?”   The “real world” and “facts” that you speak about come in the form of a formidable candidate, Donald Trump, whose force of personality is bringing out the “sins” of your past and holding them up for scrutiny.  You lived in a “fact-free political universe” when the mainstream media protected you and minimized your actions.

In Donald Trump, you  face someone who has command of the media and will no doubt be willing to dig deeper into the issue.  While this plays out on the national level in which many people will feel as if justice is served, as your wife has said, “Every survivor of sexual assault deserves to be heard, believed, and supported.”  As this goes on, you will continue to be minimized by your wife.  Instead of feeling useless, though, you’ll feel as helpless as your victims as the facts continue to be brought to life.  Question here is whether or not you will ever feel remorse for your actions or continue on with your behavior.

 

 

More Trump Strategy

Bottom line is that Trump needs to win his home-away-from home-state of Florida. It’ll be very similar to Al Gore, who lost to George W. Bush because he couldn’t win his home state of Tennessee and Bill Clinton’s home state of Arkansas. Gore didn’t want to be associated with the Clinton corruption, but ultimately paid the price by not winning either state.

Winning Ohio (18) and/or Pennsylvania (20) is optimal.  But he can also win if he takes Virginia (13) and Iowa (6) in lieu of one of those states.   What makes Ohio and Pennsylvania so attractive is that they are part of the Appalachian Region that can help Trump win:

This is where the hand-to-hand combat takes place. In 2012, Obama won Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia, while Mitt Romney won North Carolina, West Virginia, and Kentucky. Question here is whether Donald Trump can win Ohio and Pennsylvania, while holding onto North Carolina. It’ll be a great battle to watch.

Trump’s Conservative Credentials

Many elite right wing Republicans like to hide behind the word “Conservative,” like it is a shield or barrier where they get to sit on their perch and point with their finger and decide who belongs to the club or not.  Guys like Mark Levin like to paint politicians with words like “agrarian,” “populist,” “nativist,” and “nationalist,” as if their use of the word elevates them over everyone else.

It’s why they don’t understand Donald Trump.

For the record, Donald Trump is a “Fiscal Conservative.”  As a businessman, he wants to fix our economy and bring jobs back.  He’s for smaller government because it helps cut back our bills.  Trump’s ego is so large that he wants to go down in history as the one who tamed the $19+ billion budget deficit and got us back to normal.  He didn’t want to become President to solve the abortion problem.

Off the record, Donald Trump is a “Social Progressive.”  He maintains the conservative view that social issues should be determined by the state, but he doesn’t come out one way or the other for or against any issues.  It’s because he doesn’t want Hillary Clinton and the Democrats to have wedge issues.

  • On Planned Parenthood, he doesn’t want Hillary Clinton to bellow, “Billionaire doesn’t believe that you own your body.”
  • On minimum wage, he doesn’t want Hillary Clinton to bellow, “Billionaire doesn’t believe that you should make a living.”
  • On transgender bathrooms, he doesn’t want Hillary Clinton to bellow, “Billionaire doesn’t believe in your civil rights.”

All Hillary Clinton could manage is a “Billionaire writes tax plan for billionaire,” which no one believes.  Comparing their two plans, Trump’s plan provides 11.5% growth (10-Year GDP Growth) and 5.3% growth (Added Jobs in the millions).  Clinton’s plan provides negative growth in both those categories.

While Trump plays the “Social Progressive” role to blunt Hillary Clinton attacks, he shows his “social conservative side” with his list of 11 Conservative Supreme Court nominations.  Trump has stated that he believes the federal government should be out of those particular types of social issues and that they should be handled by the state.  Ultimately, a Conservative Supreme Court acts as referee and makes the final decisions, while Trump continues to work as a “Fiscal Conservative.”

Trump’s Brilliant Supreme Court Nominations

Once again, Donald Trump scores big with his list of potential Supreme Court Nominations. Trump’s list includes:

Steven Colloton of Iowa
Allison Eid of Colorado
Raymond Gruender of Missouri
Thomas Hardiman of Pennsylvania
Raymond Kethledge of Michigan
Joan Larsen of Michigan
Thomas Lee of Utah
William Pryor of Alabama
David Stras of Minnesota
Diane Sykes of Wisconsin
Don Willett of Texas

If you were to look at the electoral map:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

It becomes clear that Trump picked  conservatives from battleground states.

In picking Steven Colloton of Iowa, he pleased Senator Chuck Grassley from Iowa.  “If anybody had any doubts, and I think a lot of people do have doubts, this will help settle that,” Grassley told Bloomberg Politics of Trump’s shortlist, released Wednesday afternoon.

In picking Thomas Lee of Utah, he pleased his brother, Senator Mike Lee from Utah, who stated that the Supreme Court justices would all be great choices but “one name on that list stands head and shoulders above the rest.”  Trump deftly side-skirts the issue of nominating Mike Lee to the Supreme Court by nominating his brother.

In a surprise move, Trump nominates Don Willett, which appeases the Texas, but Willett is notorious for his Donald Trump tweets:

Donald Trump haiku—

Who would the Donald
Name to ? The mind reels.
*weeps—can’t finish tweet*

 

Trump’s Strategy

Donald Trump’s delegate strategy is relatively simple.  Win Mitt Romney states, including North Carolina, and add FL, OH, and PA.  According to Nick Cass’s article, “Dead heat: Trump, Clinton tied in 3 swing-state polls” for Politico, those three races are dead even.   Clinton leads Trump in FL, 43% to 42%, which is a statistical tie.  He leads Clinton in OH, 43% to 39%.  In PA, Clinton leads Trump, 43% to 42%, which is a statistical tie.

Trump’s road to victory:
He wins all the states that Mitt Romney wins (including North Carolina).
He wins FL, OH, and PA.

If there is a 3% swing away from what Barack Obama got to what Mitt Romney got, Trump wins it (273 to 265).
Here’s what it looked like in 2012:
FL: 4,237,756 50.01% (Obama) 4,163,447 49.13% (Romney) 29 delegates
OH: 2,827,710 50.67% (Obama) 2,661,433 47.69% (Romney) 18 delegates
PA: 2,990,274 51.97% (Obama) 2,680,434 46.59% (Romney)

Currently, Trump is ahead of Mitt Romney’s primary totals in those states:
FL – 1,079,870 (Trump) 776,159 (Romney), 303,711 (difference)
OH – 713,404 (Trump), 460,831 (Romney), 252,573 (difference)
PA – 892,706 (Trump), 464,705 (Romney), 428,001 (difference)

Hillary Clinton is behind her own vote count in those states from her failed 2008 election, except for FL:
FL: 870,986 votes (Clinton 2008), 1,101,414 (Clinton 2016) 26.46% higher
OH: 1,259,620 votes (Clinton 2008), 696,681 (Clinton 2016) 44.69% drop
PA: 1,273,779 votes (Clinton 2008), 918,689 (Clinton 2016) 27.88% drop

With a 3% swing:
FL: 52.13% (Trump), 47.01% (Clinton)
OH: 50.69% (Trump), 47.67% (Clinton)
PA: 49.59% (Trump), 48.97% (Clinton)

Trump wins it (273 to 265).


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