Trump’s Strategy

Donald Trump’s delegate strategy is relatively simple.  Win Mitt Romney states, including North Carolina, and add FL, OH, and PA.  According to Nick Cass’s article, “Dead heat: Trump, Clinton tied in 3 swing-state polls” for Politico, those three races are dead even.   Clinton leads Trump in FL, 43% to 42%, which is a statistical tie.  He leads Clinton in OH, 43% to 39%.  In PA, Clinton leads Trump, 43% to 42%, which is a statistical tie.

Trump’s road to victory:
He wins all the states that Mitt Romney wins (including North Carolina).
He wins FL, OH, and PA.

If there is a 3% swing away from what Barack Obama got to what Mitt Romney got, Trump wins it (273 to 265).
Here’s what it looked like in 2012:
FL: 4,237,756 50.01% (Obama) 4,163,447 49.13% (Romney) 29 delegates
OH: 2,827,710 50.67% (Obama) 2,661,433 47.69% (Romney) 18 delegates
PA: 2,990,274 51.97% (Obama) 2,680,434 46.59% (Romney)

Currently, Trump is ahead of Mitt Romney’s primary totals in those states:
FL – 1,079,870 (Trump) 776,159 (Romney), 303,711 (difference)
OH – 713,404 (Trump), 460,831 (Romney), 252,573 (difference)
PA – 892,706 (Trump), 464,705 (Romney), 428,001 (difference)

Hillary Clinton is behind her own vote count in those states from her failed 2008 election, except for FL:
FL: 870,986 votes (Clinton 2008), 1,101,414 (Clinton 2016) 26.46% higher
OH: 1,259,620 votes (Clinton 2008), 696,681 (Clinton 2016) 44.69% drop
PA: 1,273,779 votes (Clinton 2008), 918,689 (Clinton 2016) 27.88% drop

With a 3% swing:
FL: 52.13% (Trump), 47.01% (Clinton)
OH: 50.69% (Trump), 47.67% (Clinton)
PA: 49.59% (Trump), 48.97% (Clinton)

Trump wins it (273 to 265).


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
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